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Custom Investment Analytics

→ Enabling deeper, data-driven client conversations

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Franco Arda, Ph.D.

Franco Arda, Ph.D.

Data Analyst

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Goal:

Does the yield premium justify the barrier risk?.

Analytics:

Monte Carlo simulation of barrier breach probability under different volatility scenarios

Insight:

“If 12-month volatility rises to 70%, barrier touch probability increases to ~57%.
At 50% volatility, it falls to ~41%.”

Structured Products

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👉 Live demo (interactive URL)
Analysis can be shared as a URL — internally or with clients

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Goal:

What is gold’s risk-return profile under varying market conditions?

Analytics:

Monte Carlo simulation assessing volatility sensitivity and tail risk (VaR / CVaR).

Insight:

”At 40% volatility, the 12-month downside gold price scenario is ~$2,069.
Under lower volatility (~20%), it’s ~$3,313.”

Risk & Return Scenarios

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👉 Live demo (interactive URL)

Analysis can be shared as a URL — internally or with clients

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Goal:

What LTV level provides an optimal balance between financing and LTV touch risk?

Analytics:

Monte Carlo (GBM) simulation mapping asset price paths to LTV threshold is touched.

Insight:

“Assuming 60% asset volatility, a 70% LTV results in a 32% probability that the LTV is touched over the next 12 months. Tightening the LTV to 60% reduces the touch probability to roughly 17%.”

Lombard Loan Lending

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👉 Live demo (interactive URL)

Analysis can be shared as a URL — internally or with clients

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Contact:

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